Economic Impacts

In the southeast U.S. and Florida, comprehensive reviews of the science note that increasing warmth and precipitation can add to the risk of waterborne and foodborne diseases, and aid the proliferation of insects that spread diseases like Zika, West Nile, and dengue fever (Liang et al., 2017; Carter et al., 2018); Jayakumar et al. 2024).  Regional climate change, as well as changes in microclimate, can affect human health through changing patterns of disease, extreme weather, and socioeconomic stratification (e.g., lower-income people are often more at risk) (National Climate Assessment, 2023).  Field and modeling studies elsewhere and in the southeast U.S. have shown that increasing exposure to extreme heat can be a driver of higher mortality rates (Hayden et al. 2023).

Many resources on climate change and many public health are available from the Pan American Health Organization (2025), including over 15 direct and indirect examples of human health impacts. In Florida, many reviews conclude that public health is vulnerable to climate-associated processes (e.g., heat waves, hurricanes, storm surge, and sea level rise), with diverse social and economic effects (e.g., Liang et al., 2017; Magers et al. 2025). These health effects include temperature-related illnesses, increased waterborne pathogens, and extreme weather injuries and deaths. For example, toxins from harmful cyanobacterial blooms can impact public health in many coastal waters of the US, including the IRL (e.g., Schaefer, 2022).

There are also interactions between chemical pollutants and effects of changing climates that may amplify background challenges to coastal public health, e.g., intakes of endocrine disrupters including pharmaceuticals in coastal fishery species (Ng et al. 2021; Rehage et al. 2025; James et al. 2025) or increased allergic reactions (Reinmuth-Selze et al., 2017). The above and other climate health challenges can have substantial socio-economic impacts that are often not fully accounted for (e.g., Liang et al., 2017).

Extreme heat is an increasing public health concern as coastal communities face rising temperatures, high humidity, and increasing loss of land to development. While the lagoon’s proximity to the Atlantic Ocean provides some cooling, many neighborhoods throughout the watershed experience elevated temperatures due to extensive pavement, limited tree canopy, and development patterns that intensify the urban heat island effect. These conditions can disproportionately affect communities with fewer resources to adapt, including older adults, outdoor workers, young children, and households with limited access to air conditioning (Ebi et al., 2021). The National Weather Service Heat Risk website has considerable public health value.

Because the average age in Florida is higher than in most other states, this population is particularly vulnerable to these risks (Raimi et al., 2020). Research that quantifies the results of a California cap-and-invest program in place since 2012 suggests that positive public health impacts can result from coordinated carbon pollution pricing. This policy created benefits that amount to five times the cost of the program (Breslow and Wincele, 2020).

The Pentagon, individual military services, and NASA have produced a variety of reports on the challenges of climate change: in-theater and at home (e.g., American Security Project, 2019). For example, a major review advised and signed by 16 generals and admirals (CNA, 2014), states that “… projected impacts of climate change will be more than threat multipliers; they will serve as catalysts for instability and conflict.” Among many security-focused conclusions, the report also noted that projected climate change impacts inside the borders of the U.S. can effect our homeland security.

A report by the Center for Climate and Security (2016) notes that major military transportation, command and control, intelligence, and deployment hubs may face erratic outages, or curtailment of operations, due to more extreme weather and sea level rise. The ability of the DOD to fulfill mission requirements will be more costly, take more time, and be hindered by a lack of planned-for assets at critical junctures. These are force-multipliers for our enemies that should not be ignored (CNA, 2014; Center for Climate and Security, 2016).

A DOD analysis submitted to Congress in 2019, lists vulnerabilities at 79 key U.S. military facilities and says nearly all are facing problems from increasingly severe weather, such as flooding and drought (DOD, 2019). Multiple Air Force and Navy bases in Florida are within this analysis including Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on the IRL. This facility and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center are subject to a variety of increasing flood risks (e.g., Climate Central, 2019).

Many coastal businesses throughout the southeastern U.S. are operating in hotter air and water environments with more extreme weather, increased stormwater, and continued increases in the rate of sea level rise (Carter et al. 2018), including the IRL, its tributaries, and barrier islands. The East Central Florida Regional Planning Council has conducted extensive planning discussions with staff from multiple governments and other experts in a resilience planning process being implemented around the region (ECFRPC, 2018). The ECFRPC’s Sea Level Rise Sub-Committee recommended that planners prepare for a rise of 5.15 to 8.48 ft by 2100 (ECFRPC, 2018, pp. 24-26) based on reviews by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and NOAA.

The implications of increasing extreme weather events and sea level rise for coastal businesses, including tourism and real estate, are the subject of a large policy literature on climate adaptation needs and opportunities in coastal Florida that dates back to at least the 1980s (e.g., Wanless, 1982; Lindeman et al., 2018; CCAL, 2020. Recent simulated shoreline submergence of the IRL has evaluated the effects of sea level rise on natural and built attributes that either contribute to (boat ramps, seagrass) or degrade (septic and wastewater treatment systems) ecosystem services (Parkinson et al. 2025). Seven percent of the known or likely septic systems in the watershed will be submerged by 2050. Seagrass distribution is expected to decline 34% by 2050. By 2100, all ramps, spoil islands, over 27,000 septic systems, and six wastewater treatment plants are predicted to be inundated; all estimates from Parkinson et al. (2025).

Potential increases in frequency and intensity of tropical storms increase the risks of property damage (Carter et al., 2018; Martinich and Crimmens, 2019). More severe storms not only pose more risks to human lives, they also reduce regional economic output in varied sectors over short- and long-terms (e.g., Raimi et al., 2020). Under continued high carbon emissions scenarios, climate change effects are estimated to range in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually by the end of the century (e.g., NCA, 2018; Martinich and Crimmins, 2019). Lowered emissions of carbon coupled with adaptation actions in relevant business sectors, if done soon enough, can reduce substantial economic impacts over the longer term.