Economic Impacts
DoLLARS AND SENSE
Economic Values
The Indian River Lagoon Economic Valuation Update estimated the total annual economic output at approx. $7.6 billion in 2014 (ECFRPC and TCRPC, 2016). A breakdown by business sectors is provided at IRLNEP (2025). This does not include an estimated $934 million in annualized real estate value for properties located on or near the IRL nor economic contributions from north of the Ponce de Leon Inlet. With these drivers, the total economic output can be valued at about $9.9 billion annually (IRLNEP, 2019).
From 1980-2024, Florida had 94 weather disaster events exceeding $1 billion each, primarily severe storm and tropical cyclones (NOAA, 2025). The 1980–2024 annual average is 2.1 events (CPI-adjusted), the annual average for the most recent 5 years (2020–2024) is 6.8 events (CPI-adjusted) (NOAA, 2025). Unabated ocean heating and the impacts on IRL resources (see citations in Environmental Impacts webpages) invite major long-term economic losses to IRL and coastal ocean businesses, including tourism.
In a statewide review, Florida’s coastal and ocean economies were estimated to generate approximately $500 billion annually in 2005 and 2006 (Kildow, 2006; 2008). Along central east Florida, the Indian River Lagoon generates goods and services via diverse business and recreation opportunities. For those lucky enough to live in or visit these coastal areas, not preparing for climate change will mean real losses to local economies (e.g., (Florida’s Climate Future, 2025).
With continued growth in emissions, annual U.S. economic losses will reach hundreds of billions of dollars by later in the century, exceeding the current GDPs of most U.S. states, with losses often concentrated in coastal areas following the Fourth National Climate Assessment (USGCRP, 2018). Market risks are elevated as well (U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, 2020). The sections below provide introductions to the literature but are not comprehensive.
Source: K. Lindeman
Source: Florida Today
Coastal Fisheries
Indian River Lagoon fisheries generate an approximate $30 million in revenues annually and provides approx. 50 percent of the annual fish harvest along Florida’s East Coast (SJRWMD, 2025). The IRL commercial fin-fishery declined from $23.5 million in 1990 to $14.8 million in 2015 (inflation-adjusted), a 37 percent decline (ECFRPC and TCRPC, 2016). Brevard, Indian River, and Martin counties showed the sharpest declines in value and pounds harvested.
The value of the IRL commercial clam, oyster, crab, and shrimp harvest for 2015 was $4.3 million – a decline of nearly 80 percent compared to 1994 (ECFRPC and TCRPC, 2016). Pounds of shellfish harvested also declined during that period, 7.1 million to 2 million pounds, or almost 72 percent. Volusia, Brevard and Martin counties showed the largest declines.
More frequent and severe storms, sea level rise, coastal habitat loss associated with both factors, changes in nutrient dynamics, and ocean acidification are among the interlinked factors that can impact the productivity of Florida’s marine fisheries (Lorenzen et al., 2017). In addition to fishing, the broader waterfolk culture of East Florida is of high economic value along the IRL and coastal ocean with estimated contributions of $225 million and $53 million annually from fishing and surfing in Brevard County alone (Kelly, 2008).
The large Florida peninsula supports iconic marine recreational and commercial fisheries with an estimated economic impact of over $13 billion annually as of Lorenzen et al. (2017). Recreational fishing contributes to 70,000 jobs and attracts 6.5 million participants annually (NMFS, 2016; Southwick Associates, 2018). The same climate change factors that can impact IRL fisheries can impact most other estuarine and marine systems around the state (e.g., Lorenzen et al., 2017; Environmental Impacts pages on this site).
Public Health
In the southeast U.S. and Florida, comprehensive reviews of the science note that increasing warmth and precipitation can add to the risk of waterborne and foodborne diseases, and aid the proliferation of insects that spread diseases like Zika, West Nile, and dengue fever (Liang et al., 2017; Carter et al., 2018; Jayakumar et al. 2024). Field and modeling studies elsewhere and in the southeast U.S. have shown that increasing exposure to extreme heat can be a driver of higher mortality rates. Regional climate change, as well as changes in microclimate, can affect human health through changing patterns of disease, extreme weather, human conflict, and socioeconomics (e.g., lower-income people are often more at risk) (e.g., Carter et al., 2018).
Many reviews conclude that public health in Florida is vulnerable to climate-associated impacts (e.g. heat waves, storm surge, hurricanes, and sea level rise), with a range of social and economic effects (e.g., Liang et al., 2017; Magers et al. 2025). For example, harmful algal blooms (HABs) caused by cyanobacteria can impact public health in coastal waters throughout the US, including the IRL (e.g., Schaefer, 2022). These health effects effects include temperature-related illnesses, increased waterborne pathogens, and extreme weather injuries and deaths.
There are also interactions between chemical pollutants and effects of changing climates that may amplify background challenges to coastal public health, e.g., intakes of endocrine disrupters including pharmaceuticals in coastal fishery species (Ng et al. 2021; Rehage et al. 2025; James et al. 2025) or increased allergic reactions (Reinmuth-Selze et al., 2017). The above and other climate health challenges can have substantial socio-economic impacts that are often not fully accounted for (e.g., Liang et al., 2017).
Because the average age in Florida is higher than in most other states, this population is particularly vulnerable to these risks (Raimi et al., 2020). Research that quantifies the results of a California cap-and-invest program in place since 2012 suggests that positive public health impacts can result from coordinated carbon pollution pricing. This policy created benefits that amount to five times the cost of the program (Breslow and Wincele, 2020).
Of approx. 80 mosquito species in Florida, Aedes aegypti can spread dengue fever, Zika, and other diseases. Source: USDA
Source: NASA
Space and Defense
The Pentagon, individual military services, and NASA have produced a variety of reports on the challenges of climate change: in-theater and at home (e.g., American Security Project, 2019). For example, a major review advised and signed by 16 generals and admirals (CNA, 2014), states that “… projected impacts of climate change will be more than threat multipliers; they will serve as catalysts for instability and conflict.” Among many security-focused conclusions, the report also noted that projected climate change impacts inside the borders of the U.S. can effect our homeland security.
A report by the Center for Climate and Security (2016) notes that major military transportation, command and control, intelligence, and deployment hubs may face erratic outages, or curtailment of operations, due to more extreme weather and sea level rise. The ability of the DOD to fulfill mission requirements will be more costly, take more time, and be hindered by a lack of planned-for assets at critical junctures. These are force-multipliers for our enemies that should not be ignored (CNA, 2014; Center for Climate and Security, 2016).
A DOD analysis submitted to Congress in 2019, lists vulnerabilities at 79 key U.S. military facilities and says nearly all are facing problems from increasingly severe weather, such as flooding and drought (DOD, 2019). Multiple Air Force and Navy bases in Florida are within this analysis including Cape Canaveral Air Force Station on the IRL. This facility and NASA’s Kennedy Space Center are subject to a variety of increasing flood risks (e.g., Climate Central, 2019).
Other Business Sectors
Many coastal businesses throughout the southeastern U.S. are operating in hotter air and water environments with more extreme weather, increased stormwater, and continued increases in the rate of sea level rise (Carter et al. 2018), including the IRL, its tributaries, and barrier islands. The East Central Florida Regional Planning Council has conducted extensive planning discussions with staff from multiple governments and other experts in a resilience planning process being implemented around the region (ECFRPC, 2018). The ECFRPC’s Sea Level Rise Sub-Committee recommended that planners prepare for a rise of 5.15 to 8.48 ft by 2100 (ECFRPC, 2018, pp. 24-26) based on reviews by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and NOAA.
The implications of increasing extreme weather events and sea level rise for coastal businesses, including tourism and real estate, are the subject of a large policy literature on climate adaptation needs and opportunities in coastal Florida that dates back to at least the 1980s (e.g., Wanless, 1982; Lindeman et al., 2018; CCAL, 2020). Recent simulated shoreline submergence of the IRL has evaluated the effects of sea level rise on natural and built attributes that either contribute to (boat ramps, seagrass) or degrade (septic and wastewater treatment systems) ecosystem services (Parkinson et al. 2025). Seven percent of the known or likely septic systems in the watershed will be submerged by 2050. Seagrass distribution is expected to decline 34% by 2050. By 2100, all ramps, spoil islands, over 27,000 septic systems, and six wastewater treatment plants are predicted to be inundated; all estimates from Parkinson et al. (2025).
Potential increases in frequency and intensity of tropical storms increase the risks of property damage (Carter et al., 2018; Martinich and Crimmens, 2019). More severe storms not only pose more risks to human lives, they also reduce regional economic output in varied sectors over short- and long-terms (e.g., Raimi et al., 2020). Under continued high carbon emissions scenarios, climate change effects are estimated to range in the hundreds of billions of dollars annually by the end of the century (e.g., NCA, 2018; Martinich and Crimmins, 2019). Lowered emissions of carbon coupled with adaptation actions in relevant business sectors, if done soon enough, can reduce substantial economic impacts over the longer term.
Source: NASA
Source: Florida Dept. of Economic Opportunity
Opportunities
The good news is that climate change also presents business opportunities – if we use the science and think thoroughly about our future. Importantly, renewable energy business sectors and those with associated sustainability initiatives are among the fastest growing segments of the U.S. economy (Energy Information Administration, 2019; Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020).
The Carbon Disclosure Project is working with 225 of the world’s 500 largest companies, who report that climate change responses could generate over $2 trillion in new business prospects and new clean-energy jobs (e.g., Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2020). This includes major growth in green buildings, renewable energy, electric vehicle sales, public transit, and construction of energy-efficient public infrastructure as old infrastructure is replaced (e.g., Cho, 2019).
Nobel Prize-winning economist Dr. Joseph Stiglitz wrote a telling opinion piece, including this,
“We will pay for climate breakdown one way or another, so it makes sense to spend the money now to reduce emissions, rather than wait until later to pay a lot more for the consequences… It’s a cliché, but it’s true: an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure.”
Clean energy and sustainability initiatives are becoming commonplace in U.S. and global industries (e.g., Accenture Global CEO Survey, 2010; Costanza et al., 2016; McMahon, 2019). Scaling-up these initiatives is one of the best investments we can give ourselves and future generations.
If interested in volunteering or otherwise taking action on issues above, the What We Can Do page can assist.